Friday, January 23, 2015

Like Billy Beane Playing Small-Stakes Poker

Small-Stakes Texas Hold 'Em is based on a series of bets that are capped after three rounds of betting.  For example, the first round of betting, after the cards are dealt in a $3-$6 game, requires a $3 bet, nothing more, nothing less.  After subsequent cards are turned (the 'flop', the 'turn', and the 'river'), betting is capped at $6 per round. 

These betting rules play a significant role in strategy and have a tremendous psychological effect on
the participating players.  Suppose you limped into the hand from the small blind with an offsuit 6, 7.  Say the flop comes out 4, 8, K(ing).  You have a so-called gut-shot straight draw - 4, 6, 7, 8 - you need a 5 to make your straight.  The chances of hitting a 5 on the next card are minimal out of all of the remaining cards in the deck.  The only way you should pay $6 to see the next card is if there is a significant amount of money in the pot, which gives you favorable expected value (Without going into an in-depth lecture on poker strategy and probability, this simply means, over the long term, the possible winnings are high enough to justify paying $6 to see the next card because, if you were faced with that same bet multiple times over a long period of time, you would come out ahead).  However, players in small stakes poker don't think that way.  They tend to think more along the lines of "Well, I'm already in 'x' amount.  The most I can lose is another $6." 

Small stakes poker takes a lot of the guess work out of the game.  If you play good cards and know how to maximize your bet, you will come out ahead over time.  Most people don't play small stakes poker; instead they seek the roller coaster ride and glamour of No Limit Hold 'Em, where, in addition to playing the right cards and calculating your probability of winning a hand, you must also navigate the murky waters of reading the opposing players to decide whether or not they are bluffing.  Why make it more complicated than it needs to be? 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Billy Beane, the GM of the Oakland Athletics, became a household name after Brad Pitt played his character in the 2011 film, "Moneyball".  Beane utilized sabermetrics (defined in Wikipedia as "the empirical analysis of baseball, especially baseball statistics that measure in-game activity") to construct a winning, low-salary baseball team by signing on a number overlooked, underrated, efficient players.  Instead of looking at batting average, look at runs scored and defensive competence, because that is what wins games.  Beane's quantitative approach to managing the A's was extremely successful, leading to 20 straight wins in 2002, a feat that hadn't been accomplished in the over 100 year history of American League Baseball.

Beane overruled scouts who had been in the game for decades, scouts who were adamant they could spot the next big star.  The showy, hotshot players are not what he was looking for and he had the gumption to stick to his guns and build his team around quantitative results on the baseball field. 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

The same strategies can be applied in all walks of life, every day, every step of the way.  Overconfidence and the allure of fame, riches, or a quick victory, trump the more-sure, but mundane path to achievement.  No need to constantly swing for the fences to be a winner.  Your goal-seeking needs to be set up like Billy Beane playing small-stakes poker.  Play only the hands that have the best probability of winning while wagering as little as possible.  The poker hands are your tasks, the cost is your time, energy, and resources.  Put your eggs in a few different baskets that have a high probability of success.  Concentrate your energy on the tasks that will most likely help you to reach your goal.  Take the guesswork out of it and leave as little to chance as possible, conserving your resources for more favorable opportunities.  Our time is finite; you only have so much of it to spend.  None of this means you shouldn't take risks; it means you should take calculated risks.  Have an idea of what you want each task to accomplish - how it correlates to reaching your goal.  If you don't know, then it's probably not a worthwhile task!  Limit your participation to tasks that are aligned with your ultimate goal.

Quantifying it doesn't need to be exact or absolute, but can be relative:

Watching TV:  Low probability to help you achieve your goals at a relatively low cost of time and resources => Low benefit, Low cost.

Read an educational book in your field of interest:  High probability to advance your knowledge at a relatively low cost =>  High benefit, Low cost.

Drinking beer with the guys after work:  Low probability to progress towards your goal, high cost of wasted time, energy, health, and money => Low benefit, High cost (though, an argument can be made that social gatherings like this can be therapeutic and necessary on occasion to clear the mind!)

Grabbing dinner with a mentor:  High probability of learning something valuable at a calculated cost of time, energy, and money =>  High benefit, High cost (but possibly worthwhile if enough money is in the pot!  i.e. if the benefits gained outweigh the resources expended).

Get it?  The idea is to narrow down your activities to the high benefit, low cost category and high benefit, high cost, assuming you're gaining more than you are expending.

Drink beer all day and watch tv?  Eventually, you'll find yourself underprepared at the poker table heads up against Billy Beane. 


  1. Hi Dirk

    I must say that I loved this article because of the way you started and the way you concluded the post.

    I was intrigued by the principles of betting and how it was utilized in a baseball team. Even though, I don't understand the concept of betting, I like when a principle or strategy can be utilized in any field or industry so you got my attention.

    I also admire they way you used this strategy for lifestyle. The idea of this post is to make us apply a strategy that will make us more productive. Thanks for sharing.

  2. thank you for being given a chance to comment on this great article. do not forget to visit us

    Agen Bola Online

    Casino Online

    Judi Online

    Agen Togel

    Bandar Bola

  3. This is such a great resource that you are providing and you give it away for free. I love seeing blog that understand the value of providing a quality resource for free. mybestpoker

  4. [url=]Situs Judi Online Terpercaya[/url]
    [url=]togel online[/url]
    [url=]togel online terpercaya[/url]
    [url=]togel singapore online[/url]
    [url=]daftar togel online[/url]
    [url=]bandar togel online[/url]
    [url=]togel online sgp[/url]
    [url=]situs togel online[/url]
    [url=]togel online org[/url]
    [url=]nomor hongkong togel online[/url]
    [url=]togel online deposit 50000[/url]
    [url=]judi togel online[/url]
    [url=]aplikasi togel online[/url]
    [url=]online togel[/url]
    [url=]agen togel online[/url]
    [url=]togel online terbaik[/url]
    [url=]togel jakarta online[/url]
    [url=]cara main togel online[/url]
    [url=]totomini togel online[/url]
    [url=]judi online togel[/url]
    [url=]agen togel online terpercaya[/url]
    [url=]pasang togel online[/url]
    [url=]dewa togel online[/url]
    [url=]www togel online[/url]
    [url=]situs togel online terpercaya[/url]
    [url=]keluaran togel sgp online[/url]
    [url=]nomor togel hongkong online[/url]
    [url=]togel online singapore[/url]
    [url=]bandar togel online terpercaya[/url]
    [url=]togel sidney online[/url]
    [url=]togel 88 online[/url]
    [url=]togel online singapur[/url]
    [url=]nomor singapura togel online[/url]
    [url=]asian4d online togel terpercaya cepat diskon besar[/url]
    [url=]hk togel online[/url]
    [url=]cara bermain togel online[/url]
    [url=]bandar online togel[/url]
    [url=]pengeluaran togel sgp online[/url]
    [url=]info togel online[/url]
    [url=]cara pasang togel online[/url]
    [url=]daftar togel online terpercaya[/url]
    [url=]cara daftar togel online[/url]
    [url=]sgp togel online[/url]
    [url=]cara mendaftar togel online[/url]
    [url=]kumpulan situs togel online terpercaya[/url]
    [url=]main togel online[/url]
    [url=]daftar togel singapura online[/url]
    [url=]singapura togel online[/url]
    [url=]data pengeluaran togel online[/url]
    [url=]data togel online[/url]
    [url=]togel 4d online[/url]
    [url=]game online togel[/url]
    [url=]pengeluaran togel online[/url]
    [url=]hongkong togel online[/url]
    [url=]togel kuda lari semarang online[/url]
    [url=]kuda togel online[/url]
    [url=]togel singapur online[/url]
    [url=]toto togel online[/url]
    [url=]prediksi togel hongkong online[/url]
    [url=]prediksi togel online[/url]

  5. Ayo Temukan Sendiri Kemenangan Anda di ToyotaQQ
    Dengan Proses Depo dan Wede yang Super Cepat dan Respons LiveChat yang Kilat

    judi poker online

    judi online poker

    judi poker online terpercaya

    situs judi poker online terpercaya

    situs judi poker online

    judi poker online asia

    agen judi poker online

    situs judi online poker

    rajapoker88 situs agen judi poker bandar domino qq online terpercaya

    poker online judi

    judi poker online terbaik

    situs resmi judi poker online

    judi poker online gratis

    poker online

    agen poker

    download judi poker online

    poker judi online terbaru

    deposit pulsa


    [url=]Situs Judi Poker Online[/url]
    [url=]Agen Judi Poker Online[/url]
    [url=]Situs Judi Online Terpercaya[/url]
    [url=]Cara daftar judi online[/url]
    [url=]Cara bermain judi online[/url]

    [url=]Sabung Ayam Online[/url]
    [url=]Situs Judi Poker Online[/url]
    [url=]Agen Judi Poker Online[/url]



  6. This comment has been removed by the author.

  7. I am constantly surprised by the amount of information accessible on this subject. What you presented was well researched and well written to get your stand on this over to all your readers. Thanks a lot my dear. DNA Poker

  8. Watch ufc 242 live stream khabib vs poirier live stream online reddit mma stream tickets, weigh-ins, fight card, timings, betting ods many more.

  9. SugusQQ Situs agen Poker, Domino99 Terbaik, Agen DominoQQ dan BandarQ Online Terpercaya, judi online Bonus Judi QQ terbesar Se Asia Situs judi qq online terpercaya

  10. I wanted to thank you for this excellent read!! I definitely loved every little bit of it. I have you bookmarked your site to check out the new stuff you post. Lexispoker


  12. ToyotaQQ adalah salah satu situs Poker Online Indonesia yang mempunyai 8jenis permainan, diantaranya:
    AduQiu, BandarQiu, Poker, Bandar Poker, Bandar66, Sakong, Capsa Susun dan Domino99

    Daftar Bonus

  13. It is incomprehensible for one individual to deal with the majority of the above things. maxbet login

  14. This comment has been removed by the author.

  15. Roupas no atacado para revender direto da fabrica com melhor preco do Brasil, fabricamos roupas em atacado com melhor preco do mercado, se voce quer compras em atacado de roupas voce está no lugar certo. atacadao da roupa

  16. positive website online, where did u arrive taking region at the back of the advice regarding this posting? i'm appreciative i discovered it even though, knocked out the weather be checking abet soon to find out what courting posts you tote happening. daftar poker

  17. SultanQQ merupakan situs yang menyediakan permainan domino online dan bandarq juga poker terbaik di Indonesia. Dengan memakai server poker pkv yang terkenal ini, situs agen dominoqq online ini memang menjadi tempat yang sangat tepat buat kamu bermain permainan kartu qq online. Banyak sudah member kami yang telah merasakan kemenangan yang di raih ketika bermain di Sultanqq, dengan tingkat kemenangan atau winrate yang tinggi, dapat dipastikan kamu akan merasakan kemenangan besar dengan withdraw terbaik yang bisa kamu dapatkan bersama kami. Layanan pelanggan kami melalui customer care 24jam akan siap membantu kamu dalam menjawab setiap pertanyaan yang kamu ajukan demi kenyamanan juga kelancaran dalam permainan dominoqq online. Dan juga proses transaksi baik itu deposit dan penarikan dana diproses dengan cepat karena dukungan dari bank lokal terbesar di Indonesia. Jika kalian merupakan pemain poker yang sangat ingin menang maka bersama SultanQQ adalah pilihan yang sangat tepat sekali.

  18. تعتبر اسعار نقل العفش هى الاهم بالنسبة لجميع العملاء التى تتعرض لنقل الاثاث بشكل متكرر نظرا لارتفاع تكاليف نقل العفش فى مصر نقل عفش فى مص

  19. Impressive work on the essayist's part.

  20. [url=]afapokernet[/url]
    [url=]dominoqq net[/url]
    [url=]download aduq[/url]
    [url=]download inipoker[/url]
    [url=]itu bola[/url]
    [url=]itu bola biz[/url]
    [url=]itu bola com[/url]
    [url=]itu bola net[/url]
    [url=]itu poker[/url]
    [url=]itu poker com[/url]
    [url=]itu poker net[/url]
    [url=]itubola net[/url]
    [url=]itubola biz[/url]
    [url=]itupoker android[/url]
    [url=]itupoker download[/url]
    [url=]ituqq android[/url]
    [url=]ituqq co[/url]
    [url=]ituqq login[/url]
    [url=]ituqq poker[/url]
    [url=]login itupoker[/url]
    [url=]vip poker[/url]
    [url=]www itupoker[/url]
    [url=]www itupoker net[/url]
    [url=]www2 dewa poker net[/url]

  21. Lady Era (Sildenafil) is scientifically formulated to provide intense sexual satisfaction for women seeking ultimate pleasure. lady era represents a serious approach to the problem of female sexual arousal disorder (FSAD) and sildenafil wor women sexual dysfunction (FSD), formulated scientifically to provide satisfaction in terms of sexual needs and lasting pleasure.

  22. The website provide hot product with best price . Visit my site if you want to buy product:

  23. I'm dazzled, I should state. In all respects infrequently do I run over a blog that is both useful and engaging, and let me let you know, you ve hit the nail on the head. Your blog is significant.. 에스뱅크 주소

  24. Description: GoPkv - Kumpulan situs Pkv Games dominoqq, dominobet, domino99, bandarqq, qq online, aduq, sakong, dan pokerqq terlengkap dan terpercaya.

  25. Nonetheless, the bill targets only the American citizens and the US gambling and casino market. But the implications of this law spread globally.토토사이트

  26. Ufabet เว็บพนันออนไลน์ ยูฟ่าเบท สมัครฟรี 2500 | UFA เดิมพันขั้นต่ำ 10 บาท ใช้ระบบ ฝาก-ถอน 30 เท่านั้น สมัครวันนี้รับโปรโมชั่น 100% สนใจ @ufa700

  27. Welcome to Pick The Tees, the place to purchase Pick The Tees gear. See our baseball-t-shirts selection for the very best in unique or custom, handmade pieces from our clothing shops.

  28. 먹튀검증대! 여러 토토사이트 를 분석 후 문제점 개선, 안전한 베팅환경에 최선을 다하고 있습니다. 또한 구글 상위노출을 통해, 많은 베터님들께 좋은 정보를 공유하며 먹튀보증업체를 100% 확실하게 추천해드립니다.

  29. I high value this post. It's elusive the great from the awful in some cases, yet I think you've nailed it! would you brain redesigning your website with more data? 퍼스트카지노

  30. Positive progression betting system is generally used in the gambling poker. Use of this method to proceed with the game helps the player to increase the gains in gambling. 먹튀검증

  31. I'm happy to see the immense subtle element here!. gabion glass